The Athletic Mind

In a bonus opinion article for this month, we look at behavioural tendencies that most fans experience during the off-season.

As football enthusiasts eagerly assessed their teams in pre-season friendlies earlier this year, I spotted a fascinating psychological phenomenon come to light, shaping the lens through which fans perceive these warm-up matches.

Enter the world of confidence bias, a cognitive inclination influencing the interpretation of events based on preexisting beliefs. In the context of football, and given the strong preexisting beliefs fans have in their favourite teams, this bias manifests as a tendency for fans to either overestimate or underestimate their team’s capabilities, depending on the outcomes of pre-season encounters.

Let’s say a team secures multiple victories in these preparatory matches. I notice fans of such teams exhibit an overconfident bias, attributing success to the team’s inherent strength and overlooking potential weaknesses. In their eyes, it is confirmation that their team will have a fantastic season. 

Supporters, driven by their initial beliefs, selectively emphasise information that aligns with their preconceived notions.

In such a case, we might think that this correlation is observed in fans of teams who have a particularly poor pre-season. What we find, however, is that a string of losses might trigger a bias against the significance of pre-season matches. Instead of causing fans to doubt the team’s competence, what we find are statements that reaffirm fans’ confidence in their team, despite the losses. Statements that downplay the losses, like “it’s only pre-season”, “these games don’t matter”, and “better to lose now than during the season”.

What is also curious is that confirmation bias may further amplify tendencies in the other direction. Supporters, driven by their initial beliefs, selectively emphasise information that aligns with their preconceived notions. So whilst we’ve seen that positive outlooks may magnify victories and downplay losses, skeptics of a team’s ability might focus on defeats as confirmation of their doubts, dismissing any positive outcomes.

Recognising the influence of confidence bias is essential for fans and analysts seeking a balanced perspective. Understanding the psychological nuances at play allows for a more objective evaluation of a team’s potential, acknowledging that pre-season performances are just one chapter a long season for teams.